Cleantech Patent Forecast

As alternative energy sources take center stage in the global economy, several attorneys from Woodcock Washburn's Cleantech Group have leveraged their scientific and patent expertise to take a closer look at recent developments in five key cleantech sectors. The study, which is primarily aimed at predicting the patent landscape in the coming years, focused on hybrid-electric, fuel cell, biofuels, solar, and wind technologies. At the heart of this study is a proprietary algorithm, which uses as input the number of patents issued—and the number of patent applications published—in a particular cleantech sector, as well as factors such as pendency and allowance rate at the United States Patent and Trademark Office.

In conducting their study, the authors compiled data for thousands of issued patents and published applications, which were selected based, in part, on keyword searches. In addition, the authors relied on the most recent edition of the International Patent Classification (IPC) published by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) to supplement their keyword searches. The authors believe that this combined approach results in the most reliable and comprehensive method for collecting patent data in a given area of technology.

Because market forces are in continuous flux1 and new technologies arise constantly,2 the analysis tools used in generating this forecast were designed with the flexibility necessary to incorporate ever-changing conditions into the projections. This means that input parameters are constantly being evaluated for their continued validity and are adjusted as mandated by real-world factors. Woodcock’s Cleantech Group intends to publish the “Cleantech Patent Forecast” once a year in the third quarter.

1 See, e.g., “Ill Winds Blow for Clean Energy: Cheap, and Abundant, Natural Gas Diminishes Alternative Projects' Appeal,” The Wall Street Journal, July 9, 2009 discussing the effect of greater supply and weaker demand for natural-gas on present and future investments on wind technologies. But see, "Vestas Says Wind-Project Demand Is on Rise, The Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2009 discussing the start of an unfreeze in the wind energy sector.

2 See, e.g., "Biofuel Bet Aims to Harvest Fish That Feed on Algae," The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 18, 2009 discussing the use of algae from “dead zones” in the Gulf of Mexico as a potential biofuel.